A Tennessee Pivot?How exactly is a congressional district that Donald Trump and retired Rep. Mark Greene won by 22 points in 2024 suddenly a contested district where the Republican candidate is polling within the margin of error (+/- 4% points)? Simply put, people can’t afford their most basic needs, and they’re blaming Trump and Republicans for it. The economy is the number one issue for voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District as hundreds of workers in the area face layoff notices and they struggle to cover the high costs of food and products – which have been impacted by inflation and Trump’s tariffs. It’s the same story for affordable housing (which is in extremely short supply in the district), and concerns about increasing health care costs, especially after Trump and Republicans cut Medicaid and refused to extend tax subsidies for health care premiums. While Trump’s approval rating in TN-7 hasn’t slumped as low as he has nationally (36% approval), he is still underwater with 49% of voters in the district disapproving of the job he is doing. That is driven by Democrats and Independents who disapprove of Trump at 95% and 59%, respectively. What’s more interesting is the volume of Republicans and Independents who don’t have anything nice to say about Trump – both at 44%. That represents a lack of buy-in, and a potential lack of enthusiasm to show up at the polls for the Republicans candidate on the ballot today. We’ll see how this special election shakes out this evening, but two things are abundantly clear: 1. No where is too “Red” to compete; and 2. Giving voters a clear vision and plan for making their lives affordable is critical everywhere.
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